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Insurance Co. Investor, UAD 3.6, RON, Personal Branding Tools; TPO Product; Disaster News

9/15/2025 10:53 AM

“Someone posted that they had just made synonym buns. I replied, ‘You mean just like the ones that grammar used to make?’ I am now blocked.” That was sent to me by an economist; yes, they have senses of humor. Did you know that the Federal Reserve Board employs more than 500 researchers, including more than 400 Ph.D. economists, who represent an ex...Read More

Slow, Slightly Stronger Start to a Potentially Volatile Week

9/15/2025 10:25 AM

For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back always carries a notable caveat: Fed Funds Rate expectations definitely have a direct correlation with longer-term rates. There are two reasons those expectations can change: markets are either assuming ...Read More

Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week

9/12/2025 2:43 PM

Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and yields are heading out right where they started.  In fact, yields are also right in line with the opening levels from Monday.  This broadly suggests the market got where it was going after t...Read More

Mortgage Rates Were Flat All Week No Matter What Other News Suggests

9/12/2025 2:20 PM

The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight.  Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal.   "Higher rates" is contrary to many media outlets" coverage this week, but there"s an important reason. Most news organizations that cover mortgage rates rely on Fred...Read More

2nd, Database Mining, Manufactured Housing Products; Weak Job Market Impacting Rates?

9/12/2025 10:38 AM

“Rob, we’ve said ‘no’ to more expansion possibilities than ever before. Are you hearing other lenders doing deep dives on LOs and branches and also not seeing a profitable path?” Yes indeedy. Here in Jackson, MS, at the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference, lenders are not only discussing expansion but also early payoff penalties and strat...Read More

Back in The Range After Failed Breakout Attempt

9/12/2025 10:11 AM

Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday"s close.  Now on Friday, we"re opening at 4.06 and we haven"t spent much time trading more than a few bps higher or lower than that for the entire week.  Translation: apart from yesterday"s attempt to challenge the 4.0% floor, it"s been very sideways and unevent...Read More

Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising

9/11/2025 3:25 PM

Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market mover after the jobs report. With that in mind, it might seem surprising that MBS are heading out the door roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are down less than 3bps. It becomes less surprising when we con...Read More

Mortgage Rates Move Back to Long-Term Lows

9/11/2025 2:51 PM

Today"s inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly calm.  There are multiple subheadings of data that the bond market cares about when it come to CPI. Most of them were in line with expectations, or close enough to avoid surprising investors. The...Read More

Slightly Stronger Start Despite Slightly Higher Inflation

9/11/2025 11:10 AM

It"s an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market"s reaction.  At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly CPI was 0.346%, almost high enough to make for a 0.4 vs 0.3 reading). Additionally, monthly headline inflation was 0.4 vs 0.3. These numbers, in and of them...Read More

Recapture, Compliance, Marketing, Warehouse Mgt. Tools; Webinars and Training This Week; 10-Year Yield Hits 4.00

9/11/2025 10:41 AM

“All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline. “A dip in corporate AI adoption isn"t a great sign for an industry hellbent on world domination.” I am good at misunderestimating things, but will it go the way of blockchain (which is alive and simm...Read More

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