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Mortgage Rates Sneak to 2 Week Lows With Important Data on Deck

5/2/2024 3:28 PM

The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday"s update from the Federal Reserve.  While the Fed didn"t cut rates, and while they"re increasingly acknowledging that rate cuts are moving farther into the future, they still think data will evolve in a way that results in the next move being a cut ...Read More

Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk

5/2/2024 3:26 PM

Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to hold the gains after the early economic data which consisted of unfriendly readings in Challenger layoffs, Jobless Claims, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs.  All three spoke to ongoing labor market stren...Read More

Placeholder Day Ahead of Jobs Report

5/2/2024 11:20 AM

Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn"t mean we can"t see a bit of volatility for other reasons.  The morning hours have generally been good for bonds with overnight gains only briefly interrupted in the 9am hour.  This didn"t appear to be...Read More

Hedging, Wholesale and Correspondent Products, 4506 vs. 8821, U/W Automation, Recapitalization Possibilities

5/2/2024 10:07 AM

Not all, but many, capital markets folks spent their college years rolling up their sleeves. Some not so much. When originators are asked about interest rates, some LOs may use the line in the clip above: “Oh, man. I only ride them; I don"t know what makes them work.” (The current STRATMOR blog is titled, “Relying on the Fed: How Did This Happen?”)...Read More

Decent Data and Palatable Powell

5/1/2024 3:49 PM

Decent Data and Palatable Powell Bonds managed modest to moderate gains after digesting all of the morning"s economic data and events.  None of the reports were too exciting and one might conclude that traders were slightly more interested in buying bonds regardless of the data.  Yields flat-...Read More

Mortgage Rates Move Lower After Fed Announcement

5/1/2024 3:08 PM

Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates.  The morning"s data was perfectly palatable, resulting in modest strength heading into the afternoon"s Fed announcement. Contrary to impression given by many news headlines on Fed day, there is rarely any ...Read More

Old vs New Fed Statement With Changes Highlighted

5/1/2024 1:00 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation o...Read More

TPO, Market Analysis, VOE, Real Estate Search Tools; GSE and USDA News

5/1/2024 10:49 AM

“I named my dog ‘5 Miles’ so I can tell people I walk 5 Miles every day.” This morning, I head to Yosemite National Park for some camping, hiking, and biking. National parks receive 325 million visits a year, about 4 million of which are Yosemite’s compared to top U.S. sites like the Blue Ridge Parkway and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, ...Read More

ARM Loan Share Rises as Borrowers Seek Affordability

5/1/2024 8:00 AM

Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance In...Read More

ADP and Treasury Refunding Announcement Do No Harm

5/1/2024 7:57 AM

Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data.  Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new month" trading (8:15am is the time of the release and 8:20am is CME open that frequently sees increased volume).All that having been said, ADP is no longer ...Read More

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